Why South Sudan Civil War Is likely To Intensify, Role Of UPDF Mega Deployment

Why South Sudan Civil War Is likely To Intensify, Role Of UPDF Mega Deployment

The national army says it is on standby to respond to any threat that results from the renewed fighting in South Sudan.

Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) spokesperson Brig Flavia Byekwaso is quoted by both New Vision and Daily Monitor saying the army is prepared because these are things that have been happening now and then.

UPDF fought alongside the SPLA rebels to secure South Sudan’s liberation and later intervened twice in post-independence wars– in 2013 and 2016.

On both occasions, the Ugandan military deployed infantry, battle tanks and air firepower to save President Salva Kiir’s government from collapse, prevent worse bloodshed and evacuate Ugandan citizens and expatriates trapped in the fighting between government troops and pro-Machar soldiers.

Days ago, a splinter group of South Sudan’s main rebel group, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-In Opposition (SPLA-IO), an offshoot of South Sudan’s army, announced it had ousted their leader Riek Machar.

Refresh fighting started after a section of the rebels rejected the move to kick out Dr Machar, who is South Sudan’s First vice President.

The splinter faction is led by the First Lt Gen Simon Gatwech.

Brig Byekwaso says the Ugandan forces are always prepared to protect Uganda.

“The forces are always on high alert to protect our borders as part of our cardinal role. So, in case there is a spill over because in such conflicts there are always such, UPDF is ready to handle the situation as it has done in the past,” she told Daily Monitor.

“If the need arises for our people to come back and we are asked to provide safe passage, that’s something we can talk about just like in the previous times, which we have always done,” she said.

There are reports that the rebel forces loyal to Gatwech have planned several attacks on Ugandan traders on Nimule-Juba route.

War resumes

The renewed deadly fighting entered a third day yesterday, threatening to tear apart a peace deal behind implementation.

Radio Tamazuj had reported a cessation of hostilities at the start of the week following gunfire that rocked Upper Nile State on Saturday.

The danger fronted by the fresh clashes is a compromise and likely sabotage of the fragile 2018 power-sharing deal between Dr Machar and his old foe and current President Salva Kiir, reported Daily Monitor.

This newspaper accessed a copy of the declaration dated August 3. 

It details a list of grievances that party loyalists, who have now turned into rivals, have been holding against Dr Machar as early as more than 10 years.

For example, they claimed Dr Machar, without consulting the entire military leadership, abandoned the party to take up the Vice President’s appointment.

Since the time of the appointment, they say he has not been able to update or guide the party on any wayforward.

According to the declaration, Dr Machar attempted to assassinate Lt Gen Dual since he took him for an obstacle in his way of leadership.

“The suspicious actions of Dr Machar are aimed at destroying the mission and vision of the SPLM/A-IO like he did to Dr John Garang in 2002 and left the army fragmented and stranded,” it said.

The leadership declared dissolution of the SPLM/A-IO Political Bureau and the National Liberation Council and denounced Dr Machar from the chairmanship of the movement.

The declaration means Dr Machar must no longer represent the interest of the party and the wider population in South Sudan since he has become part of the national government thus compromising the fundamental reasons that led to the crises.

Dr Machar, a wily leader who survived years of bush warfare, close attempts on his life and stretches in exile, served as vice president alongside Gen Kiir in the first government post-independence from Sudan in 2011.

But the pair fell out and Dr Machar was sacked two years later. Troops loyal to each man turned their guns on each other, and South Sudan descended into five years of horrific bloodshed.

In 2018 — after a string of failed peace accords and violated ceasefires — a fresh truce paused the fighting that left nearly 400,000 South Sudanese dead.

Under that arrangement, Dr Machar entered another unity government as deputy to Gen Kiir in February 2020.

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