BY INNOCENT KIIZA
As COP28 takes place in at Expo city, Dubai in the United Arab Emirates(UAE) recent study by the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute warns that Earth is approaching major tipping points if global temperatures rise 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels,
The lead researcher, Tim Lenton, emphasizes the potential devastating effects, including ecosystem loss, crop failure, mass displacement, political instability, and financial collapse.
UN Secretary-General Calls for Fossil Fuel Phaseout
UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasizes the necessity of completely phasing out fossil fuels, not just reducing or abating them, to limit global temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Guterres underscores the urgency of a clear timeframe aligned with this target.
Recent revelations of the President of COP28 and CEO of a UAE state-owned oil company, Sultan Al Jaber, downplaying the science behind fossil fuel phaseout raise concerns. The distinction between “phasing out” and “phasing down” fossil fuels, as well as the difference between “abated” and “unabated” use, becomes crucial in understanding their positions.
Guterres asserts that a phasedown of fossil fuel use over the next five years can align with science, but it must be a step towards a nearly complete phaseout by 2050. This linguistic nuance becomes a key point of contention in negotiations.
“Phasing down fossil fuel use over the next five years can align with science if the result is to cut emissions in half by 2030. But ultimately, such a phase down has to be a step towards an all-but-total phase out of fossil fuels by 2050.” Guterres said.
Some fossil fuel states, like Saudi Arabia, resist committing to even a phase down of fossil fuels, let alone a phase out. The requirement for a consensus vote in the COP’s final text allows petrostates to hinder meaningful progress, emphasizing the need for civil society and journalism to expose such obstacles.
Mean while former US Vice President Al Gore proposes changing COP rules to strip fossil fuel states’ de facto veto power. Gore advocates for a 75% supermajority approval of the final text instead of unanimous consent, aiming to shift the balance of power and overcome the obstruction posed by fossil fuel interests.
Fossil Fuel Lobbyists at COP28
Exxon’s CEO, Darren Woods, attends COP for the first time, advocating for continued fossil fuel use and unproven technologies like carbon capture. A staggering 2,456 fossil fuel lobbyists gained access to this year’s COP, raising concerns about their influence.
A University of Oxford report reveals that relying heavily on carbon capture and storage to achieve net-zero by 2050 would cost at least $30 trillion more than strategies focusing on renewable, energy efficiency, and electrification. While essential for some sectors, the report highlights the financial burden of this approach.
In conclusion, as COP28 progresses, the language used in negotiations and the influence of fossil fuel lobbyists remain pivotal factors in determining the world’s commitment to combating climate change. The urgency of the situation calls for a reevaluation of COP rules to ensure that global consensus aligns with the necessary actions to address the impending climate crisis.
